Early box office tracking suggests this year’s Memorial Day frame could deliver fireworks of the cinematic variety. According to projections shared with The Hollywood Reporter, Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is pacing for a domestic debut between $72 million and $88 million over the Friday‑through‑Monday holiday stretch. Most analysts are pinpointing an $80 million launch, which would eclipse 2018’s Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($61.2 million over three days) to mark the best opening in IMF history. If the number lands near the high end of the range, Tom Cruise’s Ethan Hunt will be bowing out with a personal-best franchise sendoff.
Yet the IMF won’t have the multiplex to itself. Disney’s live‑action Lilo & Stitch remake is charting an even bigger course, with tracking between $110 million and $130 million. Should both films hit their midpoints, movie theaters could see a combined $210 million from the weekend’s top two performers alone—potentially the strongest Memorial Day showing since 2023’s “Barbenheimer” mash‑up jolted cinemas out of their post‑pandemic slump.
To appreciate the scale, consider Memorial Day 2013. Universal’s Fast & Furious 6 roared to $117 million, while The Hangover Part III managed $50 million, pushing the overall four‑day haul to $306 million. That remains the holiday’s record when you tally all titles in release. If Lilo & Stitch and The Final Reckoning overperform—and if holdovers such as Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes or If remain sturdy—2024 could threaten, or even topple, that decade‑old benchmark.
The two‑film dynamic also recalls Memorial Day 2007, when Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End ($140 million) sailed alongside Shrek the Third ($67 million). The duo pulled in $207 million combined. Adjusting for inflation, a similar total today would be roughly $300 million. Industry optimists believe Cruise’s stunt‑heavy finale and Disney’s family‑friendly alien tale could flirt with that figure if audience sentiment turns into urgent, first‑weekend demand.
Memorial Day has historically been kind to Tom Cruise. He launched Mission: Impossible II on the holiday in 2000 and shattered records in 2022 when Top Gun: Maverick soared to $160.5 million—the biggest Memorial Day opening ever. Paramount’s marketing campaign for The Final Reckoning is leaning on that goodwill, rolling out IMAX fan events, behind‑the‑scenes stunt reels, and character posters that highlight the saga’s endgame stakes.
Disney, meanwhile, has already seeded social media with nostalgic throwbacks to the original 2002 animated Lilo & Stitch, unveiling side‑by‑side comparisons of live‑action Stitch puppetry and voice‑actor Chris Sanders’ return to the role. The studio will blanket television and digital platforms with cross‑promotion during the NBA playoffs and the build‑up to Inside Out 2. Research firm NRG reports that both titles are testing strongly across key quadrants—Lilo & Stitch with families and Gen‑Z teens, The Final Reckoning with men over 25 and action aficionados.
If the tracking holds, exhibition chains could experience the single most lucrative Memorial Day weekend in modern history when unadjusted for inflation. With IMAX, Dolby Cinema, and ScreenX premiums boosting per‑ticket averages for Cruise’s globe‑trotting farewell, and with Disney corralling the family demographic, the marketplace appears primed for a rare win‑win scenario. Theater owners are hopeful the momentum will then flow into June’s tentpoles—the R‑rated comedy Bad Boys: Ride or Die and Pixar’s Inside Out 2—cementing 2024 as the first summer season to rival pre‑pandemic heights.
Additionally, Paramount has also launched an Easter Egg-filled Mission: Impossible puzzle minigame on Discord, which you can also play here: www.startyourmission.com.
Plus, we have a first look at the film's Tom Cruise-designed popcorn bucket, which will require two keys to open. Check it out below:
Check out the thrilling new "Long Wing" featurette below:
Plus, check out action-packed new stills and new posters below!
In our review of the previous installment, Dead Reckoning, we said, "Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One is the undisputed blockbuster movie event of the summer! Tom Cruise delivers yet another action movie masterpiece, packed with jaw-dropping spectacle, pulse-pounding action, heartfelt emotion, awe-inspiring performances, and an exhilarating chemistry opposite new leading lady Hayley Atwell that’ll have you begging for more. This is one Mission we’ll always choose to accept! Bring on Part Two!"
In addition to Cruise, the supporting cast features Hayley Atwell (Captain America: The First Avenger; Agent Carter; Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning), Ving Rhames (Mission: Impossible; Pulp Fiction; Dawn of the Dead), Simon Pegg (Shaun of the Dead; Star Trek; Mission: Impossible), Vanessa Kirby (The Crown; Pieces of a Woman; Mission: Impossible – Fallout), Esai Morales (Ozark; La Bamba; Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning), Pom Klementieff (Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2; Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning; Westworld), Mariela Garriga (Bloodline; Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning; Y: The Last Man), Henry Czerny (Mission: Impossible; Ready or Not; Revenge), Holt McCallany (Mindhunter; Fight Club; Wrath of Man), Janet McTeer (Ozark; Albert Nobbs; Jessica Jones), Nick Offerman (Parks and Recreation; The Last of Us; Devs), Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso; Game of Thrones; Hocus Pocus 2), Angela Bassett (Black Panther; What's Love Got to Do with It; 9-1-1), Shea Whigham (Boardwalk Empire; Joker; Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning), Greg Tarzan Davis (Top Gun: Maverick; Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning; Grey’s Anatomy), Charles Parnell (Top Gun: Maverick; Transformers: Age of Extinction; The Last Ship), and Frederick Schmidt (Angel Has Fallen; Mission: Impossible – Fallout; Supergirl).
McQuarrie helmed the feature, with a screenplay he co-wrote with Erik Jendresen (Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One; Ithaca; Band of Brothers).
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning hits theaters and IMAX on May 23!
Our lives are the sum of our choices. Tom Cruise is Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.